Why national comparisons mislead
They rest on an assumed consumption drawn from an assumed house in an assumed climate, and then compare against an assumed alternative fuel price. Change any one of those and the conclusion changes. Your consumption is knowable, you can count bags, and your price is knowable. Once both are your own, the comparison becomes a statement about your house instead of about pellet heating in general.
Run it twice, not once
Enter your heaviest week first. That gives the ceiling: what the season costs if the whole winter behaves like January. Then enter your average week across the season. The gap between the two numbers is the range you are budgeting within, and it is commonly wider than people assume. A mild November and a hard January are not the same week, and a single figure hides that entirely.
What moves the total more than the shelf price
Three things. Buying by the ton, not the bag, which commonly changes the unit figure meaningfully. Buying before the season instead of during it, which is a supply question as much as a price one in this state. And the condition of the appliance: a pellet stove with fouled heat exchange surfaces, a clogged exhaust or a failing gasket burns more fuel for the same heat, and the loss is invisible because the stove still runs.
Storage, which is the constraint people hit
Buying ahead only helps if the pellets stay dry. Pellets absorb moisture readily and swell. Swollen pellets jam an auger and burn poorly. Dry, off the ground, under cover, and not in an unheated space that condenses. Somebody who buys a season ahead and stores it badly has converted a saving into a service call, which is worth knowing before the pallet arrives.